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Home > Gospodarka > Brytyjska gospodarka zwolni …

Brytyjska gospodarka zwolni …

Brytyjska gospodarka będzie rozwijać się wolniej po wyjściu z Unii Europejskiej bez względu na to, jaki układ uda się wynegocjować w Brukseli? Taki wniosek płynie z raportu przygotowanego dla rządu w Londynie – pisze na swym portalu brytyjska telewizja BBC. Rządowe analizy wskazują, że wzrost gospodarczy w następnych 15 latach będzie nawet o 8% niższy, niż w przypadku pozostania Wielkiej Brytanii w UE. W analizach przedstawiono różne scenariusze Brexitu i ich wpływ na gospodarkę.

Chociaż oficjalnie władze w Londynie twierdzą, że Brexit nie wpłynie negatywnie na ekonomię, to faktyczne skutki wyjścia z UE są mu znane. Jak pisze BBC, analiza dotycząca skutków została przygotowana dla brytyjskiego Ministerstwa do Spraw Brexitu. Dokument nie został jednak oficjalnie ogłoszony, ale wyciekł do prasy.

Wynika z niego, że każdy sektor brytyjskiej gospodarki ucierpi na opuszczeniu Wspólnoty. Spowolnienie gospodarcze dotknie też każdy region kraju. Jednak poseł Partii Konserwatywnej i zwolennik Brexitu Iain Duncan Smith twierdzi, że nie należy traktować dokumentu nazbyt poważnie, ponieważ jak dotąd wszystkie prognozy dotyczące wyjścia z UE okazały się błędne. Stwierdził on też, że raport jest niekompletny a rzekomy “wyciek” stanowił celowe działanie w celu szerzenia negatywnych nastrojów.

Ile straci brytyjska gospodarka?

Z analizy wynika, że wzrost gospodarczy w ciągu 15 lat będzie niższy o 8%, jeśli nie uda się wynegocjować żadnej umowy handlowej. Brytyjska gospodarka zwolni zaś o 5%, jeśli uda się wynegocjować porozumienie o wolnym handlu z UE. Natomiast tylko 2% straty państwo zanotuje, jeśli pozostanie we wspólnym rynku na obecnych zasadach. W wszystkich analizach uwzględniono zawarcie nowego układu ze Stanami Zjednoczonymi.

Dokument może ożywić dyskusję dotyczącą kształtu przyszłego porozumienia z UE, ponieważ wynika z niego, że najlepszym rozwiązaniem jest pozostawanie w bliskich relacjach z Unią Europejską. Jednak trudno powiedzieć, jaki będzie jego wpływ na dalsze negocjacje? Brytyjska opinia publiczna wydaje się odporna na argumenty dotyczące zagrożeń Brexitu dla gospodarki.

Również przedstawiciel Partii Konserwatywnej kierujący grupą ekspertów tej partii do spraw europejskich, Jacob Rees-Mogg twierdzi, że tak daleko idące przewidywania to w dużym stopniu spekulacje. Wskazał on, na wcześniejsze przewidywania, które mówiły, że brytyjska gospodarka zanotuje duży spadek zatrudnienia, jeśli w referendum wygrają zwolennicy Brexitu. Okazały się one całkowicie błędne. Przeciwnego znania są natomiast przeciwnicy „twardego Brexitu” z Partii Pracy.

W poniedziałek Unia Europejska przedstawiła swoje wymagania co do okresu przejściowego po marcu 2019 roku. Chce ona, by Wielka Brytania ciągle przestrzegała unijnych zasad, ale już bez możliwości wpływania na decyzje podejmowane przez Wspólnotę.

Źródło – BBC
Publikacja za zgodą: Redakcja Rynek Inwestycji

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