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Home > Europa > Fatalne dane w sektorze przemysłowym w Niemczech. Idzie ku gorszemu

Fatalne dane w sektorze przemysłowym w Niemczech. Idzie ku gorszemu

Zgodnie z danymi przedstawionymi przez mBank niemiecka gospodarka w drugim półroczu 2018 roku znalazła się w technicznej recesji. Jak podaje portal Money.pl, ekonomistów zaskoczyły bardzo słabe dane dotyczące produkcji przemysłowej za Odrą. Recesja w Niemczech może negatywnie wpłynąć również na polską gospodarkę, ponieważ nasi zachodni sąsiedzi są największym partnerem handlowym Polski.

Recesja w Niemczech – podaje Money.pl – może stać się faktem, na co wskazują słabe dane pochodzące z przemysłu. Ekonomiści jeszcze do niedawna liczyli, że w listopadzie nastąpi odbicie. Jednak miesiąc ten okazał się o wiele gorszy od października 2018 roku, kiedy również zanotowano spadek produkcji.

Przemysł jest kluczowym sektorem niemieckiej gospodarki. Tymczasem w listopadzie w porównaniu do października produkcja przemysłowa spadła o 1,9 proc. Jest to jeszcze gorszy wynik niż październikowy. Wtedy spadek wyniósł 0,8 proc. Jeszcze gorzej sytuacja przedstawia się w ujęciu rocznym. W porównaniu do listopada 2017 roku spadek produkcji przemysłowej w Niemczech wyniósł aż 4,6 proc.

Ekonomiści mBanku, na których powołuje się portal Money.pl, podsumowali najnowsze dane dotyczące gospodarki naszego zachodniego sąsiada i doszli do wniosku, że w drugiej połowie 2018 roku recesja w Niemczech faktycznie miała miejsce. Za recesję uważa się sytuację, kiedy przez 2 kolejne kwartały następuje spadek Produktu Krajowego Brutto.

Recesja w Niemczech i słaby kurs euro

Według danych niemieckiego urzędu statystycznego w III kwartale doszło do spadku PKB na poziomie 0,2 proc w porównaniu z III kwartałem 2017 roku. Bardzo słabe dane dotyczące produkcji przemysłowej w październiku i listopadzie mogą sugerować, że również w IV kwartale możemy spodziewać się spadku Produktu Krajowego Brutto.

Cytowany przez portal Money.pl Przemysław Kwiecień, ekonomista Domu Maklerskiego XTB stwierdził, że sytuacja w niemieckim przemyśle jest najgorsza od ostatniego kryzysu. Dzieje się to w okresie, kiedy kurs euro nie jest zbyt wysoki. Oznacza to, że recesja w Niemczech nie jest spowodowana spadkiem konkurencyjności związanym z mocną walutą.

Jak dodaje: Warto zwrócić uwagę, że sytuacja wygląda nieciekawie w momencie, gdy cła w globalnym handlu dopiero zaczynają dawać się we znaki. Nie oznacza to niczego dobrego dla polskiej gospodarki i faktycznie mocne spadki indeksów PMI należy traktować poważnie. (cytat za Money.pl)

Ponieważ Niemcy są naszym największym partnerem handlowym, trzeba podchodzić z dużym niepokojem do ostatnich danych. Recesja w Niemczech może negatywnie wpłynąć również na wzrost PKB w Polsce. W przeszłości nasza gospodarka reagowała z opóźnieniem na złą sytuacje za Odrą.

Jednak ostatnie dane GUS pokazują, że polska produkcja przemysłowa już rośnie wolniej. Wzrost zmniejszył się z 7,4 do 4,7 proc. Indeks PMI dla przemysłu spadł natomiast poniżej 50 punktów, co nie zdarzyło się przez ostatnie 4 lata. Oznacza to, że mogą nadejść gorsze czasy dla polskich fabryk.

Jak pisze Money.pl, powołując się na prognozy ekonomistów DM BOŚ, w pierwszej połowie 2019 roku polska gospodarka będzie rozwijać się nieco wolniej, ale wciąż dynamicznie. Wzrost gospodarczy zmniejszy się z 5 do 4 proc. Recesja w Niemczech spowoduje jednak większe spowolnienie w następnych dwóch kwartałach.

Autor: Waldemar Kubielski
Źródło: Money.pl
Publikacja za zgodą Redakcji: Rynek Inwestycji

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