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Home > Motoryzacja > Cena oleju napędowego będzie rosnąć a benzyny spadać

Cena oleju napędowego będzie rosnąć a benzyny spadać

Jak przewidywali analitycy, olej napędowy na stacjach benzynowych ciągle drożeje, natomiast spada cena benzyny. Jak podaje Polsat News, cena oleju napędowego jest w tej chwili najwyższa od sierpnia 2014 roku. Natomiast cena benzyny Pb95 spadła w ostatnim czasie nawet o 4 grosze na litrze.

Cena oleju napędowego zwiększyła się o 8 groszy. Różnica między benzyną a dieslem wynosi już 19 groszy na litrze. Jak informują cytowani przez Polsat News eksperci z BM Reflex:

Warto podkreślić, że z podobną relacją cen mieliśmy do czynienia kilkukrotnie, ale nigdy do tej pory dysproporcje nie były tak wysokie. W nadchodzącym tygodniu różnica może się jeszcze powiększyć, bowiem spodziewamy się dalszych spadków cen benzyny na stacjach, a w przypadku diesla stabilizacji lub lekkich podwyżek.

Również analitycy e-petrolu przewidują dalszy spadek cen benzyny. Problem mają jednak właściciele samochodów napędzanych silnikami wysokoprężnymi oraz gazem. Cena oleju napędowego wzrosła do 5,24 zł natomiast LPG do 2,54 zł.

E-petrol przewiduje dalszą zwyżkę cen diesla i gazu. Litr oleju może kosztować nawet 5,34 zł a gazu LPG do 2,61 zł. Natomiast cena benzyny Pb95 może spaść do 4,97 zł za litr a Pb98 do 5,28 zł za litr. Dysproporcja zatem jeszcze się pogłębi.

Dlaczego cena oleju napędowego jest wyższa od ceny benzyny?

Jak mówi cytowana przez portal Dziennik.pl Urszula Cieślak z BM Reflex: Zwyżki cen ropy sprawiają, że kierowcy generalnie tankują drożej. Jednak o tym, że diesel drożeje w stosunku do benzyny, przesądzają czynniki sezonowe. W okresie jesienno-zimowym rośnie zapotrzebowanie na olej opałowy, który należy do tej samej grupy co diesel. W efekcie, jeśli rynkowe ceny paliw spadają, to olej napędowy tanieje wolniej. A jeśli rosną – to ON drożeje szybciej i z tą właśnie sytuacją mamy do czynienia obecnie.

Cieślak dodaje też, że od roku 1997 już siedmiokrotnie cena oleju napędowego była wyższa niż Pb95. Różnica wyniosła nawet 18 groszy. W 2018 roku udało się pobić ten rekord. Okresy droższego diesla trwały zazwyczaj od kilku miesięcy do pół roku. Tym razem może on potrwać nawet do kwietnia 2019 roku.

W efekcie zmian na rynku ropy naftowej najwięksi sprzedawcy paliw znaleźli się pod silną presją. Niskie marże sprawiły, że na stacjach benzynowych zaczęto rozszerzać asortyment niezwiązany z paliwami. Dotyczy to na przykład żywności wprowadzanej w związku ze zwiększeniem zakupów na stacjach w niehandlowe niedziele.

Cytowany przez portal Money.pl Marcin Lipka, główny analityk z Cinkciarz.pl dodaje, że cena oleju napędowego wynika również z małych zapasów tego paliwa. Zaopatrzenie nie nadążą za popytem. Przewiduje on, że różnica w cenie do końca 2018 roku utrzyma się na poziomie 10 – 15 groszy na litrze.

Ceny ropy na światowych rynkach

Według Lipki obecne ceny paliw są efektem kilku procesów toczących się w światowej ekonomii i polityce. Należą do nich: silny wzrost gospodarczy w Stanach Zjednoczonych, wzrost PKB na świecie oraz zniszczenie przez pożar jednej z rafinerii w Niemczech.

Na szczęście dla kierowców w tej chwili ceny ropy spadają. Jednak sprzedawcy detalicznie starają się odrobić straty związane z niskimi marżami w okresie zwyżkowania cen surowca.

Jak pisze Money.pl, przedstawiciel Arabii Saudyjskiej w Organizacji Państw Eksportujących Ropę Naftową (OPEC) powiedział, że pod koniec roku dojdzie nawet do nadprodukcji ropy. Taka sytuacja może doprowadzić do spadku cen oleju i benzyny na stacjach poniżej 5 zł za litr.

Nie wiadomo jednak jeszcze, jak sankcje nałożone ponownie na Iran wpłyną na rynek surowca. Niepokojący jest również spadek wydobycia w Wenezueli. Optymistyczne dane nadciągają jednak z USA. Okazuje się, że tamtejsze wydobycie ropy z łupków może zaspokoić światowy wzrost popytu.

Możemy się więc spodziewać obniżenia cen na stacjach benzynowych na początku roku 2019. Do grudnia jednak nie ma co liczyć na odwrócenie dotychczasowych trendów. Również cena oleju napędowego pozostanie w tym roku na poziomie wyższym niż benzyny Pb95.

Autor: Wojciech Ostrowski
Publikacja za zgodą: Rynek Inwestycji

Jan Ptasznik
Dziennikarz, publicysta - polityka, gospodarka, filozofia, socjologia
http://strefawolnejprasy.pl/

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