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Bitcoin – bańka, która może pęknąć

Pieniądz… Jego wartość uzależniona jest od wiarygodności emitenta, który za nim stoi. Wpływa na nią wiele czynników makro- i mikroekonomicznych. Dlaczego więc świat zaufał walucie, którą zna zaledwie od 8 lat, której nikt nie widział, za którą nie stoi żaden namacalny, wiarygodny emitent?

Choć ludzie często deklarują, że aby w coś uwierzyć, muszą to zobaczyć, zdarza im się składać deklaracje wiary bez żądania dowodu istnienia. Na tym zbudowane są największe religie tego świata. Dziś taką ufność miliony ludzi pokłada też w kryptowalucie, której nikt nigdy nie dotknął, nie widział i nigdy nie zobaczy.

Nikt nic nie wie

1 $ = 1.309 BTC – tyle wynosił pierwszy kurs bitcoina ustalony w październiku 2009 r. Osiem lat później, 11 grudnia 2017 r., jego cena osiągnęła blisko 17.000 $, czyli ok. 60 000 zł. Chyba nie tylko dla ekonomistów i maklerów jest szokujące, że ktoś podejmuje grę na giełdzie po tak wysokim kursie walutą, o której wie tak niewiele.

Bitmoneta to tworzony w oparciu o zasady matematyki i kryptografii kilkudziesięciocyfrowy kod zawierający – na podobieństwo systemu księgowego – zapis wszystkich transakcji dokonanych między użytkownikami. Kryptowaluty powstają jako wynik mocy obliczeniowej połączonej pracy milionów komputerów z całego świata. Są więc wirtualnym, nienamacalnym tworem, funkcjonującym pomiędzy umawiającymi się na to użytkownikami w tzw. sieci P2P. Nie ma nadzoru nad tą siecią, za to każdy ma do niej dostęp.

To wszystko brzmi dość szokująco. Trochę jak z błyskotkami, którymi konkwistadorzy handlowali na odkrywanych lądach – dla tamtejszych mieszkańców zwykłe szkiełka miały wartość złota, tylko dlatego że wcześniej ich nie znali i że sami odkrywcy im tak powiedzieli. Idąc tym tropem, wartość pieniądza da się przypisać również banknotom używanym w grach planszowych. Przecież można było za nie kupić sieć hoteli, a nawet wykupić się z więzienia. Niepokojące jest, że tak jak większość ludzi na świecie dokładnie nie wie, skąd się bitcoin bierze, tak niewykluczone jest, że nie będzie wiedziało, gdy ten nagle zniknie.

Sztuczny twór

Do czego służy ta kryptowaluta? Wyjaśnienie znajdziemy w wyroku Trybunału Sprawiedliwości UE z 22 października 2015 r. (C-264/14): „Waluta wirtualna «bitcoin» należy do systemu walut wirtualnych z tzw. «dwukierunkowym przepływem», za pomocą którego użytkownicy mogą kupować i sprzedawać pieniądze wirtualne zgodnie z kursami wymiany walut (…). Pozwalają na zakup zarówno wirtualnych, jak i rzeczywistych dóbr i usług”.

Przeniesienie wartości wirtualnych pieniędzy do rzeczywistego świata staje się powoli zjawiskiem niebezpiecznym. Z uwagi na to, że kryptowaluta gromadzi tylko historie transakcji, bez zapisywania informacji na temat osób ich dokonujących, jest ona wykorzystywana w hazardzie online, głównie w tych krajach, gdzie jest on zakazany. Uznaje się, że służy ona praniu brudnych pieniędzy czy też w ogóle do przeprowadzania nielegalnych transakcji.

A znaczenie tej kryptowaluty rośnie. Powstają wciąż nowe wydobywcze „kopalnie” bitmonet, a zwłaszcza giełdy, skupiające ogromne pieniądze coraz liczniejszej grupy ludzi. Ustawodawstwa państw starają się dotrzymać kroku nowej „walucie”, dostosowując do niej swoje prawo. Niektóre, tak jak Malta, wręcz promują bitcoina jako środek płatniczy w swoim kraju. Nie można jednak zapomnieć, że ugruntowaniu wartości klasycznych walut służyły wieki istnienia państw-emitentów, ich gospodarek i uwarunkowań polityczno-społecznych. Bitcoin zbudował swą ogromną wartość w zaledwie osiem lat, bez historii i stojących za nim nieanonimowych ludzi. A większość rzeczy na świecie, które urasta do tak znacznych rozmiarów w tak szybkim tempie, jest wynikiem sztucznych zabiegów.

Nie tylko bitcoin

Duża popularność, a przede wszystkim wartość bitcoina jest fenomenem, zwłaszcza że nie jest on jedyną ani pierwszą kryptowalutą na świecie. Wszystko zaczęło się od Davida Chauma w 1983 r. Amerykański kryptograf i informatyk opracował algorytm zapewniający bezpieczne przesyłanie danych DigiCash. W 1998 r. firma Chauma zbankrutowała. Los jego kryptowaluty dzieliły później wielkie giełdy tych wirtualnych monet, zwłaszcza skupionych wokół bitcoina. Pierwszy znaczący atak hakerski nastąpił w 2010 r. – po nim bitcoin sporo stracił na wartości. Cztery lata później wyparowała jedna z największych giełd bitcoina  – Mt. Gox, która jeszcze w 2013 r. trzymała w rękach blisko 70 proc. jego obrotu. W 2016 r. to samo stało się z polską giełdą bitmonety – Bitcurexem, a w grudniu 2017 r., po drugiej kradzieży hakerskiej, bankructwo ogłosiła południowokoreańska giełda Youbit.

Obecnie na rynku dostępnych jest już ponad 1.000 kryptowalut. Wśród najpopularniejszych są ethereum, dash i goldcoin. W 2014 r. własnej kryptowaluty, o nazwie polcoin, doczekała się Polska. Nieustannie trwają na całym świecie prace nad stworzeniem kolejnych kryptowalut. Może to właśnie rosnąca konkurencja będzie szpilką, która przekłuje bitcoinową bańkę.

Co można stracić?

Bankructwo kryptowalutowych giełd to nie jedyne zagrożenie dla zaangażowanych w bitcoinowy rynek. Głównym czynnikiem, który powinien wzbudzić czujność, jest jego hossa. Tak niestabilnego kursu nie mają żadne dobra będące przedmiotem obrotu. Jako nowe, niepoznane dobrze zjawisko, kryptowaluty będą jeszcze długo ulegały silnym wahaniom wartości.

Istnieją również zagrożenia często określane mianem siły wyższej. Wojna i klęski żywiołowe potrafią doprowadzać rządy państw na skraj bankructwa, co skutkuje drastycznym spadkiem wartości emitowanych przez nie pieniędzy. Dla bitcoina wystarczy odcięcie od prądu, a ściślej rzecz ujmując – od internetu. Bez niego nie da się dokonać kryptowalutowej transakcji. Bez internetu bitcoin nie będzie nic wart. Nie będzie się dało nim zapłacić. W czasie kryzysu nie będzie miał on żadnej wartości – wówczas liczy się złoto, srebro lub po prostu twarda waluta.

No i jeszcze podatki. Definicja odnosząca się do bitcoina nie będzie zawarta w ustawie o NBP ani ustawie o usługach płatniczych, tylko o przeciwdziałaniu praniu brudnych pieniędzy oraz finansowaniu terroryzmu. Dokonujący nim obrotu mogą mieć więc uzasadnione obawy, że fiskus będzie chciał ten „niebezpieczny” obrót wziąć pod lupę, a już dziś dochody „uzyskane” z bitcoinów należy rozliczyć w rocznym zeznaniu PIT.

Spekulacja i manipulacja

Ekonomii znane jest pojęcie rynku spekulacyjnego. Każdy zainteresowany inwestycją w bitcoina powinien się tylko głęboko zastanowić, czy w obliczu tak potężnego, błyskawicznego wzrostu jego wartości nie stanie się ofiarą manipulacji, pamiętając o tym, że ekonomii równie dobrze znane jest pojęcie spekulacyjnej bańki.

Autor: radca prawny Robert Nogacki

Paweł Michalak –  radca prawny, współzałożyciel oraz partner kancelarii MKZ Partnerzy:

Płatności za pomocą walut cyfrowych dokonywane są bez udziału banków, pośredników oraz w wielu przypadkach anonimowo. Pomimo wzmożonej ochrony danych osobowych oraz założenia,
że kryptowaluta ma przede wszystkim pozwolić zachować anonimowość użytkownikowi,  jednym
z głównym zagrożeń są kwestie związane z zapewnieniem odpowiedniego poziomu bezpieczeństwa portfela użytkownika czyli konta, na którym przechowywane są prywatne klucze dostępu, służące również do dokonywania transakcji.

Należy również pamiętać, że transakcje za pomocą bitcoinów mają charakter nieodwołalny oraz nieodwracalny. Pomimo teoretycznego namierzenia adresu, na który został dokonany transfer, z uwagi na anonimowość, problemem pozostaje ustalenie tożsamości złodzieja. Możliwość odbierania
i wysyłania wirtualnych pieniędzy przez Internet anonimowo, bez udziału osób trzecich, powoduje, że egzekwowanie prawa staje się niemożliwe.

Tym samym jedynym z największych zagrożeń atrakcyjnej anonimowości systemu jest wprowadzanie do obrotu pieniędzy pochodzących z nielegalnych źródeł. Zorganizowane grupy przestępcze wykorzystują walutę do przekazywania między sobą środków np. ze sprzedaży niedozwolonych farmaceutyków czy narkotyków. Kryptowaluty mogą również stanowić doskonałe narzędzie do finansowania działalności terrorystycznej. Mimo wielu mnożących się wątpliwości stanowią one przyszłość, a ich rozwój będzie szedł w parze z pracami nad wprowadzeniem narzędzi, które zwiększą ich kontrolę, a także bezpieczeństwo transakcji i środków.

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